This week: economic growth, unemployment, inflation update

Economic gauge

The Commerce Department releases its initial estimate of first-quarter economic growth on Thursday.

Economists expect growth slowed to just 2% in the first quarter of 2024, down from 3.4% in the final quarter of 2023 and 4.9% in the third quarter. Consumers are still spending, which is a key driver for economic growth, but they’re facing persistent pressure from high borrowing rates and inflation.

GDP, seasonally adjusted annual rate, by quarter:

Q4 2022: 2.6%

Q1 2023: 2.2%

Q2 2023: 2.1%

Q3 2023: 4.9%

Q4 2023: 3.4%

Q1 2024 (est.): 2.0

Source: FactSet.

Tracking unemployment

The Labor Department releases its weekly tally of unemployment benefit applications on Thursday.

The proxy for layoffs held steady last week at 212,000 jobless claims. They have mostly remained in a narrow range since February. The resilient labor market has helped bolster consumer spending, while giving the Federal Reserve more reason to maintain high interest rates to tame inflation.